In this case, the statements made by SThe cost of 1 crude oil contractaudi Arabia and Russia make it even more doubtful how long the production reduction agreement can last. Analysts believe that even if Saudi Arabia insists on cutting production, Russia, as a non-OPEC country, may not be so firm, especially when Russia's own market share is eroded by the United States.
However, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq have discussed joint exploitation of Gulf oil and have already begun action on Iran's production quota. Currently, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq account for two-thirds of OPEC's total output.
Tonight’s API inventory data is likely to be the key to breaking the deadlock in crude oil trends this week. In the past few weeks, we can find that API inventory changes have almost shown an alternating trend of increase and decrease. At the same time, Wednesday’s EIA inventory is also consistent with API. The results are in the same direction. According to the results of the increase in inventories last week, if there is a reduction in this week, the price of crude oil is likely to exceed US$69, and according to the current oil price, as long as it is slightly favorable, enter the market. It will be the key to breaking through the 69 mark.
After a sharp increase in oil prices, there was a sideways movement, forming a relatively high point. Investors, especially those with larger capital, must ship or lighten their positions at the first selling point. At this time, the technique for judging the establishment of the first selling point is that the oil price is sideways and the MACD crosses. The date of the cross is when the first selling point is formed.
Since the global crude oil price is based on the US dollar as the benchmark, it determines that the US dollar index and crude oil prices will show a seesaw trend. However, after April 208, the US dollar index and crude oil prices showed a simultaneous rise. Considering Under the background of the strong US and weak Europe, the strength of the US dollar index is expected to continue, and when the US trade deficit can be reversed with foreign policy, the strength of the US dollar is also in the interests of the United States. Therefore, the US dollar index and the trend of crude oil prices will rise at the same time. Use the peak and fall of crude oil prices to benchmark against the strong dollar.
The market opened on Monday, July 8. Due to the unsuccessful military coup in Turkey, the market did not show the expected risk aversion. Precious metals and crude oil opened slightly lower, but Turkey accused Gülen, a dissident in exileThe cost of 1 crude oil contract in the United States, for being involved in the military coup and requested the United States to extradite him. Not only that, Turkey has also blocked NATO military bases in the country, and there are obvious rifts in the relations between Turkey and the United States. Therefore, the uncertainty brought by the Turkish political turmoil to the global financial market will be difficult to eliminate for a while.
Oil prices began to rise in 206, because OPEC, with the help of Russia and other non-OPEC members, discussed re-managing oil supply. The production reduction agreement that began in December 207 was further deepened by Venezuela's substantial production reduction.
In June, it was obligated to supply 4.95 million barrels of oil a day to these customers, but now only 6.94 million barrels of oil are available for export every day. The main terminal in Venezuela also has a large backlog of crude oil. If it is not cleared as soon as possible, this may temporarily suspend PDVSA's supply contract. In other words, Venezuela’s temporary suspension of crude oil exports will become a permanent suspension.