The U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA said last week that the U.S. has surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia in crude oil production and has become the world's largest crude oil producer. In August this year, Russia produced an average of 0.8 million barrels of oil per day, Saudi Arabia produced an average of 0.4 milWest Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Pricelion barrels of oil per day, and the average US crude oil production reached 0.9 million barrels per day.
Its speculative funds left the market at a profit. Judging from the crude oil futures and option positions calculated by the CFTC, non-commercial long positions have been showing a net decrease since May, which shows that some speculative funds have chosen to settle their positions after the oil price has continued to rise and profitably. The warehouse caused a run on oil prices to fall.
Among the series of geopolitical factors, the issue of the Iran nuclear agreement is undoubtedly the most influential. Since Trump announced on May 8 that he would withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and restart sanctions on Iran, crude oil prices have been rapidly raised by the risk premium. Some analysts pointed out that after the sanctions are officially implemented, Iran’s daily crude oil exports will drop by 0 million barrels, which will bring an irreparable gap to the international crude oil supply.
Judging from the current crude oil trend, the hourly chart shows that although the market fell sharply yesterday, after the market opened today, the market has begun to stop falling and flattened at 660, and the market even started a slight rebound in the afternoon. Although it once broke through $6, But it was immediately suppressed and fell back, which shows that the current 6 US dollars is once again as a pressure level to suppress the original trend. At the same time, the market lacked enough good news to support crude oil breakout. Although it stopped falling, it was unable to counterattack. However, the 5-day moving average in the chart has crossed the rest of the moving averages, temporarily forming a long arrangement. The short-term market can continue to see the 6 US dollars, but whether it can break through, the EIA inventory data released later will be needed to support it. If the data continues to record a decline , The crude oil price is likely to return to above $6. However, if the inventory increases like yesterday's API inventory, I am afraid that oil prices will start a new round of decline. Below, 660 must be prepared to be affected.
Since Trump announced a ban on the import of Iranian crude oil, many countries with close contacts with the United States, such as Japan, South Korea and many European countries, have stopped importing Iranian crude oil for the first time. They chose to ignore Trump's threats and continue to import. And India, as a major oil consumer and the major importer of Iranian crude oil, initially stated that it would not terminate cooperation with Iran.
As of the close, US crude oil futures rose by 0.77 US dollars, or 2%, to close at 652 US dollars per barreWest Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Pricel. The intraday low was 622 US dollars, the lowest since April 0. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.09 US dollars, or 0.2%, to close at 78 US dollars a barrel. The intraday low was 78 US dollars, which was the lowest since May 8.
In addition, Iranian Petroleum Minister Zangane asked for an additional topic to be added to the conference to discuss how OPEC supports member countries that have suffered illegal, unilateral and extraterritorial sanctions. Currently, Iran’s crude oil exports have not been substantially affected, and all parties are also making active efforts and attempts to save the Iran nuclear agreement. Venezuela also wrote to OPEC, calling for unity and joint response to sanctions. If the threat of US sanctions is effectively resolved, the supply tightening crisis will also be eased to some extent.